It really isn’t significant.
Why?
Because the votes in Iowa were restricted to registered Republican voters and a lot of them are sticking to the party line.
Trump’s support among Republicans is out on the periphery.
The Democrat establishment knows a lot of registered Democrats favor Trump. According to
The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm, Democrats in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North support Trump.
In early January
Mercury Analytics, a research company with clients that include MSNBC and Fox News, conducted an online poll. It revealed a full 20% of Democrats said they would go against the party line and vote for Trump in a general election.
Independents are a large factor as well.
An
IVN poll conducted in September showed 25.9% of them going for Trump.
“Some of the polls that show heavy support for Trump have also shown him doing better among self-identified independents who lean Republican than among regular GOP voters. At least some of those independents may not be in the habit of voting in primaries and caucuses, which could make a robust turnout operation even more necessary,” the
Los Angeles Timesnoted in December.
Polls can be inaccurate and fickle, of course, but the upside for Trump is he has a lot of support among people who don’t figure into party metrics.
Trump’s numbers will rise when voting begins in open voting states.
Cruz and Rubio don’t stand a chance.
