Monday, March 28, 2016
Still Report # 744 - Larry Sabato's Primary Projections
Larry Sabato, Professor of Political Science at the University of Virginia, has come up with his latest projection of the remaining primaries, and he sees a Trump victory and an uncontested convention.
But let’s focus in on the seven states that are up for grabs in April because if Sabato is right, a Ted Cruz victory will become a mathematical impossibility by the time May rolls around.
In 8 days from now, the polls will just be closing in Wisconsin. Sabato sees Cruz as getting only 6 delegates out of the Wisconsin race and Trump picking up 30.
Two weeks later, New York’s 95 delegates will be up for grabs. Sabato sees Trump picking up 81 of those and John Kasich taking the rest.
Then a week later, Super Tuesday #3 with 5 state offering up 172 delegates. Sabato sees Cruz as gaining only 4 delegates in these 5 states, Kasich gaining 19 and Trump getting 95. Notice that 54 of Pennsylvania’s delegates remain unbound - that is they can vote for anyone they choose at the convention on the fist ballot. Obviously, Trump will get a large portion of these.
Bottom line - 4 weeks from today the totals will look like this, Trump will have 961, Cruz will have 476, and Kasich 183.
Trump will need to get 276 of the remaining 502 delegates to win outright on the first ballot.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
“The law of the LORD is perfect, converting the soul; the testimony of the LORD is sure, making wise the simple.”